CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-03-21T16:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-03-21T16:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/37948/-1
CME Note: Faint halo CME with a bulk visible mainly to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery (more easily seen in difference imagery). There is no STEREO A COR2 imagery for this event due to a data gap. The source of this CME appears to be a large dimming region centered near N02E07 starting around 2025-03-21T15:49Z with a southeast directionality based on the minor EUV wave visible in SDO/AIA 211 and 193 imagery. There's a large coronal hole situated E/SE of the dimming region and a separate coronal hole due west of the dimming region which may have contributed to the deflection visible on the solar disk in SDO/AIA imagery. This source location appears to be a sympathetic eruption to the M1.2 flare from AR14028 (S17W33) seen to the SW in SDO/AIA 131 imagery. || Arrival: Characterized by an initially slow rise in Btotal from 7.12nT to 9.65nT at 2025-03-24T00:16Z, a shock up to 12.44nT at 2025-03-24T00:16Z, and further rise to a peak Btotal of 16.8nT at 2025-03-24T01:14Z. Bz was largely neutral with several periods of sustained southward values around -5 to -10 nT, reaching a peak -9.82 nT at 2025-03-24T01:21Z. Solar wind speed rose from around 360 km/s to 390 km/s, briefly dipped down to around 350 km/s, then rose to a peak of around 430 km/s. Density rose from around 6 p/cc to a peak of 35.3 p/cc at 2025-03-24T04:40Z. Temperature data did not respond much to this arrival signature, remaining largely level. This is likely the late arrival of CME 2025-03-21T16:00Z, anticipated to give Earth a glancing blow at 2025-03-23T07:30Z (+- 7 hours).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-03-23T23:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-03-23T00:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs
CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):
Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2025 Mar 22 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
...A fast, but faint, partial halo CME associated with dimming observed in
GOES-16 195 Angstroms in the vicinity of Region 4034 (S11W23, Axx/alpha)
was first observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately
21/1600 UTC. Modeling of this event determined an arrival at Earth by
early 23 Mar. An additional CME first seen in LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery at approximately 22/0726 UTC was determined to have originated
from beyond the NE limb and therefore is not Earth-directed.
Geospace
.Forecast...
Unsettled to active conditions are expected, with a chance for G1
(Minor) geomagnetic storming periods, for the remainder of 22 Mar.
Isolated G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely on 23 Mar due to the
arrival of a fast, but faint CME that left the Sun on 21 Mar. G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storming is likely on 24 Mar as lingering CME and negative
polarity CH HSS effects wane.
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2025 Mar 22 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
...NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 22-Mar 24 2025
Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24
00-03UT 5.67 (G2) 6.00 (G2) 4.67 (G1)
03-06UT 5.00 (G1) 7.00 (G3) 4.33
06-09UT 3.00 6.00 (G2) 3.67
09-12UT 3.00 5.00 (G1) 3.00
12-15UT 4.00 4.33 2.33
15-18UT 4.00 4.67 (G1) 2.67
18-21UT 3.33 5.33 (G1) 2.67
21-00UT 4.33 5.33 (G1) 3.00
Rationale: G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely on 23 Mar due to
CME arrival. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 24 Mar as CME
and CH HSS wane.
Lead Time: 46.50 hour(s)Difference: 23.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) on 2025-03-22T01:00Z
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